放心去淘吧——关于grey market watch（灰色市场表）

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      我是一个爱表人，也是一个海淘爱好者，时不时从国外淘表，先后帮自己和亲戚朋友从ashford、jomashop、amazon等网站淘过6块表，除了两块机械表出现协调差问题之外，质量都是很不错的，总体感觉J网比A网靠谱一点，当然这个问题见仁见智。淘过之后，欣喜之余还是有一些担心，为什么这些表的价格比零售价低这么多？是否是翻新或者残次表呢？这个问题一直在心头萦绕，直到我看到了《FORTUNE》网站上的这篇文章，在这里跟大家翻译分享一下：

To surf one of the many unauthorized watch “dealer” sites, better known as the “gray market,” is to find a horological bounty at bargain prices. Are you in the market for a Breguet “Classique Hora Mundi Automatic”? Jomashop.com is offering one for $54,995, 30% off the listed retail price of $78,900. Interested in a Rolex Cosmograph Daytona in platinum? Prestigetime.com is selling one for 15% off at $70,125.

浏览很多非授权经销商网站，即“灰色市场”，就是去找寻一份特价钟表大礼。你能遇到在jomashop.com  7折销售的宝玑世界时，prestigetime.com 8.5折销售的劳力士迪通拿。

“Yes, the gray market has exploded,” says one large east coast retailer who deals in both contemporary and pre-owned certified vintage timepieces. (Like most interviewed for this article, he didn’t want his name used.) “It’s crazy what’s out there.” Not only online. “Walk down 47th Street in New York,” he says, “you used to find just vintage watches for sale, and it was rare to find contemporary watches. Now you’re seeing brand new pieces, sealed and ready to go.”

“是的，灰色市场已经爆发” 东海岸一位同时经营新表与二手认证表的大经销商如是说，“那里简直疯狂”。不仅在网上，“沿着纽约47号大街一直走”，过去你经常发现古董表在售卖，很少见到时尚款手表。但是现在你能发现原封的新表。

These are turbulent times for luxury Swiss watches, those wonders of 15th century technology now prized as 21st century status symbols. After years of intense growth and record sales, several signs indicate that the industry’s tick has slackened to a slow tock. In January, the Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry reported exports fell 3.3% in 2015 to $21.2 billion (21.5 billion Francs) – the first such decline since 2009.

对瑞士奢侈品手表品牌来说，现在是混乱的时期，那些基于15世纪制表技术创造的奇迹在21世纪被视为身份的象征。在经过了多年的高速增长并创下销售记录之后，多个迹象表明这个行业正在减速。瑞士钟表业联合会1月份的报告显示2015年度出口额下降了3.3%，这是2009年以来的第一次。

By most accounts, last month, the halls of the Salon International de la Haute Horlogerie, the posh Geneva watch fair showcasing such brands as Cartier and IWC was a decidedly somber affair, with watchmakers — who regularly offer timepieces with price tags on par with a Hamptons summer rental – introducing (gasp!), a range of timepieces at lower price points. For instance, Piaget whose watches usually start at around 10,000 euros ($11,147), presented a new women’s line at around 7,000 euros ($7,800).

并且上个月的Geneva watch fair，展示了一系列低价时计，例如通常1万欧元起价的伯爵推出了一款7千欧元的女士产品。

Now, as the world’s horological cognoscenti prepare to gather next month at Baselworld, the largest watch trade show in the universe, pessimism among the top brands’ executives has reached a four-year high — this according to a new industry study published by Deloitte. While 2015 was difficult, Karine Szegedi, the report’s co-author in Geneva cautions, “This is looking to be a very challenging year.”

现在，世界各地的钟表鉴赏家们正准备下个月在巴塞尔表展聚集，德勒会计师事务所的报告称顶级品牌高管中间弥漫着悲观的情绪，是4年来最为严重的。某业内人士称“2015年将是一个颇具挑战的年份”。

Big factors at play

The slowdown first began withChina’s anti-corruption driveand its crackdown on luxury gift giving, coupled with the country’s economic slide. Indeed, exports to Hong Kong alone, a major hub for Swiss watches, dropped 22.9%, according to the Federation. The soaring Swiss franc, drop in oil prices, along with global political and economic volatility have all played a hand, hitting sales in the top watch-buying markets of Asia, Russia, and the Middle East.

下滑始于中国的反腐风暴以及对于奢侈品送礼风气的打击，加之中国的经济减速。的确，仅对于香港这个主要分销地的手表出口下降了22.9%，一路走高的瑞士法郎，加上全球政治经济的不稳定性，打击了亚洲、俄罗斯和中东地区的顶级手表销售市场。

At the same time, smart watches, once regarded by Switzerland as little more than a sideshow, have become a serious factor – particularly for those looking to spend under $1,500. According to the Deloitte study, a year ago, just 11% of watch executives viewedsmart watches as a competitive threat, this year, 25% do.

与此同时，智能手表这个一度被瑞士人视为比玩具强不了多少的产品已经成为传统手表的严重威胁，特别是对于1500美元以下的表款。根据德勒报告，一年之前还仅有11%的制表业高管将智能手表视作威胁，但是今年这一比例高达25%。

The elephant in the room

Among the many issues rattling the industry, however there’s another, less openly talked about reason for the downturn: the tremendous glut of inventory. The robust sales of recent years created a hyped-up market, spurring manufacturers to increase production.

在诸多扰乱手表行业的因素中，有一个很少被公开谈论，那就是庞大的库存。近几年强劲的销售造就了一个被激发起来的市场，刺激生产商增加产能。

Now the flood of timepieces largely intended for Asia and Europe aren’t moving; rather they’re turning up on the “gray market,” where new models, unlike those sold at authorized retailers, can be had at steep (15% to 60%) discounts. “Watch brands saw big numbers everywhere, and they started overproducing,” says David Sadigh, the founder and chief executive of the market research firm, Digital Luxury Group in Geneva. “But sales have not been at their level of expectations.” The surplus stock ends up in these gray markets.

现在，涌向亚洲和欧洲市场的手表销量停滞不前，他们于是出现在了灰色市场。在那里，新的表款可以以很低的折扣得到。“手表品牌感觉形势大好，开始过量生产”，数字奢侈品集团CEO说道，“但是销量却没有达到他们的预期”，过量的产品在灰色市场被消化。

That is why elite brands and models, usually found in boutiques lining Rodeo Drive or the Bahnhofstrasse in Zurich, are now sold on eBay, Amazon, and a plethora of dedicated watch sites – and even at Costco[color=rgb(236, 65, 46) !important](COST, -0.42%).

这就是为什么通常在Rodeo Drive or the Bahnhofstrasse in Zurich 才能见到的高端品牌和款式如今在ebay、亚马逊甚至costco销售。

Loss of status

The flourishing of the gray market is taking away the patina of exclusivity and rarity. “The reality is you can now get anything you want anytime,” says Adam Victor, a vice president at fashion house Narciso Rodriguez and a longtime watch collector. “There were pieces you had to be on a waiting list for at retail, that’s not the case anymore.” Victor now says he’s only collecting vintage pieces.

灰色市场的兴起擦去了排他性和稀有性的光泽。“事实是你可以得到任何你想要的”，Narciso Rodriguez 的副主席同时也是一位手表收藏家的Adam Victor说道，“过去你通常为了购买某种产品而等上一段时间，现在没有这种事了”，Victor说他现在只收藏古董表。

Such thinking is helping to take the air out of the Swiss watch balloon – and draw more people, especially young people, to the gray market. To a large extent this problem stems from the brands’ own success – particularly among the major luxury conglomerates like Swatch, Richemont and LVMH, which have been aggressively pursuing growth strategies and relying on the Asian market to keep up demand. With that demand dropping, watches are ending up in gray market sites, at lower prices.

这样的想法有助于消减瑞士手表的热度，并将一部分人特别是年轻人引向灰色市场。很大程度上，这一问题来自品牌自身的成功经历，特别像是斯沃琪、路易威登等，他们制订了侵略性的发展战略并倚重亚洲市场以保持需求。一旦需求下降，手表就将在灰色市场被低价处理。

To be sure, there will always be a market for high-end Swiss watches. But given global economic uncertainties, few see this as a short-term downturn. Notes David Sadigh at Digital Luxury Group, “It will take a while to sell those watches.”

的确，高端瑞士手表市场是稳定的。考虑到全球经济的不稳定性，很少有人将目前的情况视作短期的萧条。“消化这些手表需要一段时间”，David Sadigh 说道。